Introduction

The recent election of the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia makes one wonder whether Regional Economic Communities (RECS), namely and specifically COMESA and SADC have any meaningful weight in determining the leadership of key continental organizations such as the African Union (AU) and the African Development Bank (AfDB)

Currently the African Union recognizes the following RECs as building blocs of the African Economic Community as enunciated in the Abuja Treaty of 1991;

1. The East African Community (EAC[1])
2. The Common Market for Eastern & Southern Africa (COMESA)[2]
3. The Southern African Development Community (SADC)[3]
4. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)[4]
5. The Community of Saharan- Sahelian States (CENSAD)[5]
6. The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)[6]
7. The Intergovernmental Government Authority on Development (IGAD)[7]
8. The Arab Maghreb Union (AMU)[8]

The Debacle in Addis Ababa

In the race to succeed former AUC Chief Executive Officer, Mahamat Faki, former foreign Affairs Minister of Tchad, three candidates declared their candidatures. These were;

1. Charismatic Raila Odinga, a former Prime Minister of Kenya and ex AU High Representative for Infrastructural Development,
2. Djibouti’s Youssouf Mahmoud Ali, Dean of Africa’s Foreign Ministers, who had been in post as Djibouti’s top diplomat since 2005, and
3. Former Foreign Minister of Madagascar, Richard Randriamadrato

The candidate who seemed to have unstoppable momentum behind him was former Kenyan Prime Minister Odinga. Odinga had received the enthusiastic and boisterous backing of former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and his successor William Ruto. Kenya is the ‘superpower’ in the East African Community (EAC) and is a very influential actor in the COMESA bloc.  President Ruto reached out to SADC member states such as Zambia and Malawi to secure the diplomatic backing of the SADC bloc. Thus, Presidents Hichilema and Chakwera of Zambia and Malawi respectively pledged to unequivocally support ex-Premier Odinga in his quest to obtain Africa’s preeminent diplomatic position.  However, in the event of the election, Odinga who had taken an early lead was ultimately overhauled by Foreign Minister Youssouf Ali, who was declared winner of the contest. Thus, despite the diplomatic rant and chant that Kenya had unleashed, its candidate tasted bitter defeat.  What this defeat means was that the candidate overtly supported by COMESA and SADC was defeated by the candidate of the diminutive state of Djibouti.  Despite Djibouti being a low-key member state of COMESA, Kenya wields preponderant power in the grouping, and Nairobi is the unrivalled hegemon in COMESA.

Prime Minister Odinga’s defeat reminds me of the 2001 Organization of African Unity (OAU) Summit which took place in Lusaka. During the summit, Heads of State were to select successor to long serving Secretary-General Salim Ahmed    Salim of Tanzania. During the contest the candidate broadly backed by COMESA/SADC alliance, the late Dr Theo Ben Gurirab, Foreign Minister of Namibia was outmanoeuvred by the ECOWAS backed candidate Ambassador  Amara Essy, a former Foreign Affairs Minister of Cote D’Ivoire. Thus, Essy became the eighth (8^th) OAU Secretary General. The inference to draw here was that SADC/COMESA bloc had been defeated on ‘home ground’ 

The Battle to Succeed Dr Akinwunmi Adesina at the African Development Bank (AfDB): Another Looming Debacle for COMESA and SADC?

The Steering Committee of the Board of Governors of the African Development Bank met on 11 and 12 February and cleared the following list of candidates for the Bank’s preeminent position. The five candidates aspiring to succeed outgoing President Akinwunmi Adesina in the election scheduled for 29 May 2025 are;

1. Mr Hott Amadou of Senegal (ECOWAS)
2. Dr Maimbo Samuel Munzele , Zambia (SADC & COMESA)

• Mr Tah Sidi Ould , Mauritania(AMU & CENSAD)

1. Mr Tolli Abbas Mahamat , Chad(ECCAS) , and
2. Ms Swazi Bajabulile Tshabalala, South Africa (SADC)

In respect to Zambia’s candidate, Dr Samuel Maimbo Munzele, we know that he has received the formal endorsement of both COMESA and SADC blocs. He is a highly qualified technocrat who is a product of the World Bank’s prestigious Young Professional Programme. As a career World Bank staff member, he has risen through the Bank’s hierarchy to the position of Bank Vice President for Budget, Performance Review & Strategic Planning. However, what is rather vexing about Dr Munzele candidature is that a national of another SADC Member State, South Africa has declared her candidature for AfDB top position. She is the former Senior Vice President of the AfDB and a very close and trusted aide to outgoing President Adesina.

Is Zambian Diplomacy in Disarray?

So, we should ask the question, why should the SADC bloc be presenting two candidates for the position of AfDB President? What is the value of SADC and COMESA publicly declaring their support for Dr Munzele, whilst South Africa continues to loudly and assertively proclaim that Ms Swazi Tshabalala would be the most competent candidate to succeed Dr Adesina and lead AfDB into a new era of economic resilience and cutting-edge innovation? Why has President Hakainde Hichilema not quietly tried to persuade his brother President Ramaphosa to withdraw Ms Tshabalala’s candidature so that Dr Munzele remains the sole COMESA/SADC bloc candidate. I note too that neither Finance Minister Dr Situmbeko Musokotwane nor his counterpart at Foreign Affairs & International Cooperation Mulambo Haimbe have met their homologues in South Africa to resolve the clashing candidatures of Dr Munzele and Ms Tshabalala. Or have the Zambian Ministers sent Special Emissaries to Pretoria to secure South Africa’s support for Dr Munzele? This appears unlikely, as the government would have announced such an initiative. What appears to be the most credible scenario is that South Africa is using its enormous diplomatic weight and ‘soft power’ to present its candidate to all 54 members of the African Union as Dr Adesina’s most deserving ‘anointed’ successor. South Africa is well positioned to do so as it has embassies in all member States of the African Union. I recall that Pretoria used its immense diplomatic weight in Africa to oust former African Union Chief Executive Officer Jean Ping of Gabon and replaced him with Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma in 2013.

Conclusion

Finally ,another unfavourable scenario is that neither Dr Munzele nor Ms Tshabalala obtains enough votes to clinch the AfDB Presidency, whilst another candidate such as  Tah Sidi Ould, currently serving as President of the  Arab Bank for African Economic  Development (BADEA) and former Minister of Finance  & Economic Development of Islamic Republic of  Mauritania surreptitiously  emerges from the shadows to secure the AfDB President whilst the COMESA/SADC bloc tear themselves apart in a futile internecine ‘war’. In the ultimate analysis, both Finance Minister Musokotwane and Foreign Minister Haimbe are therefore strongly urged to diplomatically engage South Africa to forestall a looming debacle.

[1] The original EAC collapsed in 1977 following irreconcilable differences between Kenya and Tanzania. It was resurrected in 2000

[2] It was established as the Preferential Trade Area for Eastern & Southern Africa (PTA) in Lusaka, Zambia 1981. It was elevated into COMESA in 1994.

[3] It was established by the Lusaka Declaration of 1980 as the Southern African Development Coordination Conference (SADCC). It was upgraded into SADC by amended Treaty in 1992

[4] ECOWAS was established under the Treaty of Lagos of 1975

[5] The Community of Saharan  &Sahelian States was established in 1998

[6] ECCAS was established in 1981 to merge the Economic and Customs Union of Central African States (UDEAC) with the Economic Community of the Great Lakes (CEPGL)

[7] IGAD was created in 1996 as an upgrade of its precursor, the Intergovernmental Authority on Drought and Development (ICADD) founded in 1986

[8] The Arab Maghreb Union was promulgated in 1989 by the States of Northern Africa